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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement receives the award. However, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or merely the biggest upset.

However the latest field is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and recent underperformers rising together. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still